🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the current competition is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still